The Annual Budget Lottery

Putting to one side the rights and wrongs of using the weekend media to trail the highlights of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement before putting it before Parliament for scrutiny, this week’s Budget looks set to contain announcements of around £7 billion investment for improving public transport, but is it all it seems?

I reckon that, of the £6.9 billion mooted, only(!) around £1.5 billion is clean money (i.e. not funding already announced in previous statements).

The good news is that the devolved Mayors have broadly received the capital investment asked for; however, I think that the £4.2 billion investment for the eight Mayoral Combined Authorities was announced in the 2020 Budget, and the £1.2 billion for buses was part of an announcement made by Grant Shapps in February 2020.

This Chancellor is certainly continuing the tradition set by his predecessors by announcing total spending piecemeal at one series of events, then announcing it again, in full, at the next.

In essence, this Government likes big Capital projects, and in this regard the government's strategy hasn't changed all that much since the Cameron coalition Government eleven years ago - selective targeted capital spending for selected bits of the public realm and infrastructure, while exercising control over local government by throttling back revenue funding.

With a major exception perhaps.

The Chancellor's local transport announcements are trumpeted loudly, in complete contrast to the silence on a firm commitment to Northern Powerhouse Rail and HS2's eastern leg to Leeds and beyond.

The continued postponement, and even (dare I say it?) cancellation of either/both of the schemes would be huge body blows to the North, and pose serious questions about the sincerity and credibility of this Government’s much talked about levelling up agenda.

Giving with one hand & taking away with another is a conundrum every Chancellor faces at Budget time.

And finally, when is devolution not devolution?

Is it a fiscal arrangement that requires mayors and local leaders to bid against each other for various pots of money designated and decided by Westminster?

Fairer funding for both revenue and capital expenditure by local government, and the removal of competition between rival authorities through real fiscal devolution would be a sign that this Government takes the issue seriously.